Bitcoin options expiry worth $1.5 billion sets $69K max pain price

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Over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) futures options are set to expire on April 12, signaling potential downside price volatility that could see Bitcoin fall to the $69,000 mark.

The over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin options are due with a put-to-call ratio of 0.62, suggesting a “max pain” point of $69,000 for Bitcoin, according to an April 12 X post by pseudonymous trader Greeks.

Despite the maximum pain point, Bitcoin won’t necessarily fall back to its old all-time high, according to Hao Yang, global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, who told Cointelegraph:

“The max pain point refers to the price at which most options contracts would expire worthless. It’s an indicator of where options market participants are positioned, but it doesn’t necessarily influence where the underlying [asset] will be trading at.”

Periods close to the expiration of options are often characterized by increased price volatility in the crypto markets. Yet, Yang added that he doesn’t expect more volatility, pointing out the relatively small size of Friday’s options expires. He said:

“I don’t expect more volatility given options market is still only a fraction of the total crypto derivative market.”

Bitcoin price action was flat in the 24 hours leading up to 10:25 am UTC when Bitcoin was trading at $70,725. The world’s first cryptocurrency was up 5.9% on the weekly chart, according to CoinMarketCap data.

BTC/USDT, 1-day chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bitcoin could still see increased downside price volatility due to external macroeconomic factors, but not necessarily because of the upcoming options expiry, according to Andrey Stoychev, the head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo. He told Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin may approach the $69,000 mark, but whether it falls to that level depends on the broader context, including market sentiment and Bitcoin’s dance with inflation. The recent U.S. CPI data, which came in higher than expected on Wednesday, has raised concerns about inflationary pressures, potentially impacting Bitcoin’s price dynamics.”

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for March came in narrowly above expectations at 3.5% year-on-year, prompting Bitcoin whales to buy the dip, which nudged the price back above the $70,000 mark on April 10.

Related: With 10 days to the halving, analysts predict $150K Bitcoin top

ETF inflows slow down ahead of the Bitcoin halving

The inflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have been slowing down ahead of the Bitcoin halving. The ETFs generated a total of $220 million worth of net inflows during the past week, according to Dune.

Bitcoin ETF Net Flows Chart. Source: Dune

Weekly ETF inflows have been steadily slowing since their best week on March 11, when they generated $2.58 billion worth of net inflows. The ETFs only managed $337 million worth of net inflows last week, down over 45% from $615 million on the previous week.

The Bitcoin ETFs amassed over 839,000 BTC, worth $59.4 billion, in total on-chain holdings, representing 4.26% of the current BTC supply.

How Can You Prepare for 2024 Bitcoin Halving. Source: Cointelegraph

Related: Bitcoin surpasses 65 million Ordinals inscriptions days before halving